The countryside information system: A strategic-level decision support system

The Institute of Terrestrial Ecology (ITE) has monitored ecological change in Great Britain (GB) since 1978. The task has been undertaken using a stratified sampling scheme working with a 1 km square as the sample unit. In more recent years, scientific researchers at ITE have been working closely with the policy-makers of the United Kingdom Department of the Environment. The presentation of information to policy advisors and planners was a component within a large project investigating the ecological consequences of land-use change. A simple PC-based decision support system was developed during the project and subsequently has been expanded to produce a marketable product. The system, called the Countryside Information System (CIS), presents and links information at national, regional and thematic levels along with qualifying data describing accuracy and appropriateness of use (i.e., metadata). An integral part of the CIS is the ITE Land Classification, which divides GB into 32 environmental land classes; all 250 000 squares have been classified. The classification allows sampled data to be presented and, as the co-ordinate system is widely used in GB, it allows census datasets to be linked and compared. CIS has been described as a Geographical Information System, but the classification, data held within the system, and the use of metadata to assist in interpretation of results make the system much more decision-support oriented. Indeed, government departments have been involved in directing the development and are now starting to use the system to answer parliamentary questions and formulate, assess and monitor environmental policy. The CIS is an open system, running on a standard PC in Microsoft Windows. Tools for loading and editing new datasets (both sample and census) are incorporated in the suite of programs. The Windows environment and users comments during development have produced a system with an intuitive feel, removing some of the overhead of acquiring specialised technical skills before being able to operate a system. This paper describes the CIS and presents examples of its applications.     

Linking satellite and field survey data,through the use of gis,as implemented in Great Britain in the Countryside Survey 1990 project

The Institute of Terrestrial Ecology (ITE) has been studying land use and the effects of land use on ecology for two decades. A series of national field surveys have been undertaken by the Land Use Section of ITE since 1978, the most recent being Countryside Survey 1990 (CS1990). The three-year project brought together field survey and remote sensing data which were analyzed using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). National and regional land-cover patterns were described and changes estimated.The data collected by the field survey part of CS1990 recorded stratified samples based on a land classification. Thematic maps for surveyed 1-km squares covered physiography, agriculture and semi-natural vegetation, forestry, structures and boundaries. The same sites were surveyed in 1984 and 1990 with 14 000 digital maps produced describing both years. GIS was used to generate stock figures for each year, and overlay allowed change between survey dates to be estimated.GIS was used to compare data collected from both field survey and satellite imagery so that both sets of information could be qualified when expressed as national figures.This paper describes the historical development of the ITE Land Classification, examines the way in which data were collected for surveys, with particular reference to Countryside Survey 1990, and shows how satellite and field survey data can be linked through GIS.     

Aspects of the uptake of radionuclides by sheep grazing on an estuarine saltmarsh. 1. The influence of grazing behaviour and environmental variability on daily intake

Sea water contaminated with diluted radioactive effluent originating from the Sellafield reprocessing plant inundates saltmarshes in the Esk estuary in west Cumbria (UK). Much of the radioactivity on the saltmarsh vegetation was found to be associated with a surface deposit of silt, brought onto the area during tidal inundation. Large temporal variations in the radionuclide concentrations of the vegetation were found, these being due probably to seasonal fluctuation in the extent of silt deposition.The grazing habits of sheep were studied on one of these saltmarshes and the consequent ingestion of radionuclides by the sheep was estimated. The sheep ingested different quantities of radionuclides according to time of year as a result of a combination of two factors; the considerable temporal variation in the concentration of radionuclides on the saltmarsh vegetation and the seasonal grazing behaviour of the sheep.     

Repeat maternal serum testing in multiple marker down's syndrome screening programmes

The effect of repeat testing in maternal serum multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome was estimated using samples stored in an antenatal serum bank. Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) levels were determined in 142 pairs of routinely collected samples which had already been tested for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). For each marker, about two-thirds of the pairs of values were within 20 per cent of each other and most were within 40 per cent. A multivariate Gaussian model was used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates for different repeat testing policies. A policy of repeat testing those with a high risk of a Down's syndrome term pregnancy given age and marker levels would reduce the false-positive rate but there would also be a reduction in the detection rate. For example, using all three markers and a 1 in 250 cut-off risk, the estimated false-positive rate would fall from 5·3 to 3·8 per cent but the detection rate would decrease from 58 to 55 per cent. A policy of repeating those with either high or borderline risks would produce a modest improvement in screening efficiency. Repeating the 11 per cent with a risk exceeding 1 in 500 yields an estimated false-positive rate of 5·0 per cent and a detection rate of 60 per cent. A policy of selective repeat testing is not recommended as it would not substantially improve screening efficiency. Nonetheless, if a repeat test has been performed, the parameters given in this paper will enable an unbiased estimate of the Down's syndrome risk to be calculated for individual women.     

Prenatal detection of a de novo duplication of the long arm of chromosome 7

Amniocentesis was performed for maternal age and subsequent cytogenetic studies revealed a male fetus with a mosaic karyotype, one cell line having a duplication for the long arm of chromosome 7. The pregnancy was terminated and the two cell lines confirmed in varying proportions in the fetal tissues. External examination of the fetus revealed only growth retardation and a high forehead. The lack of phenotypic defects and the possible aetiology of the de novo rearrangement are considered.     

The impact of screening for open neural tube defects in England and Wales

Using information derived from the voluntary system of notification of congenital malformations in England and Wales, the birth prevalence of anencephaly and spina bifida was estimated to have declined by 80 per cent from 31.5 to 6.2 per 10 000 between 1964–1972 and 1985. Over the same period, notified terminations of pregnancy with a suspected fetal central nervous system abnormality increased from less than 1 per cent to 56 per cent of neural tube defect births and central nervous system terminations combined, accounting for 31 per cent of the decline in births. Routinely collected national statistics provide a method for monitoring the impact of screening for open neural tube defects. However because they are incomplete and lack detail an alternative method of monitoring is needed. This paper includes an outline of such a method, together with the results of a pilot study designed to assess the feasibility of monitoring screening in the Oxford Region.